February 2012

Wednesday, February 22nd
2012: 2011 Redux or Something Else?


Attendees of the conference in Student Center

  • Rajeev Dhawan, Economic Forecasting Center, Georgia State University
  • KC (Kiernan) Conway, Executive Managing Director, Real Estate Analytics Valuation & Advisory Services
  • Esmael Adibi, Director, A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research and Anderson Chair of Economic Analysis at Chapman University
  • Kathryn Lawler, External Affairs Manager, Atlanta Regional Commission

Conference Program

8:00 a.m. Registration & Breakfast
8:30 a.m. Words of Welcome Fenwick Huss
J. Mack Robinson College of
Georgia State University
8:35 a.m. Brake and Throttle: A Story of Commercial Real EstatePDF icon
Three years after the great swoon of 2008, where do we stand in terms of commercial Real Estate recovery? The talk will focus on factors that cause frictions and also that can be accelerants for any type of recovery in this sector.
KC Conway
Executive Managing Director,
Market Analytics
Colliers International Valuation & Advisory Services
9:00 a.m. Residential Real Estate and CaliforniaPDF icon
California has the second highest unemployment rate in the nation and in spite of ongoing tech boom in the Silicon Valley; the pace of job growth is still weak. Why? The spillover of a weak job growth to a sputtering real estate recovery has led to fiscal shenanigans in balancing the state’s budget. The talk will focus on the prospect for the recovery and lessons for fiscal management in other states.
Esmael Adibi
Senior Economist
A. Gary Anderson Center for Econ Research.
9:25 a.m. 2012 Transportation Referendum and Potential Impact on Metro AtlantaPDF icon
Review of the Transportation Investment Act including highlights of the metro Atlanta region’s project list and the potential impact of this 1% sales tax dedicated to infrastructure on the ten county area.
Kathryn Lawler
External Affairs Manager
Atlanta Regional Commission
9:50 a.m. Q & A
10:05 a.m. Refreshments Break
10:30 a.m. Forecast of the Nation, State and Region
The last year was marked by numerous crises around the world – turmoil and revolution in Middle East and North Africa, tsunami and earthquake in Japan, unending sovereign debt drama in Europe and stock market rollercoaster in the U.S. Opening the new year we now ask the question – shall we expect changes in 2012 or will the 2012 be more of the 2011?
Rajeev Dhawan
Economic Forecasting Center
J. Mack Robinson College of Business
Georgia State University
11:40 a.m. Q & A Conclusion
11:50 a.m. Light Lunch & Networking

Industry Speakers

KC (Kiernan) Conway

Executive Managing Director

Market Analytics Colliers International Valuation & Advisory Services

KC Conway

KC joined Colliers at the end of 2010 following 5 years of service at the Federal Reserve, and 20 years in private industry as an appraiser, underwriter, lender and credit officer. In this new role, he leads the real estate analytics capabilities advising institutional, bank and regulatory clients, as well as supporting Valuation and Advisory services.

Between 2005 and 2010, KC worked in the Federal Reserve System in multiple capacities ranging from the Commercial Real Estate “Subject Matter Expert” for the Atlanta District Bank, to the “Commercial Real Estate Risk Specialty Officer” designee to the New York District Bank. In these roles, KC briefed Chairman Bernanke, the Board of Governors, Federal Reserve District Bank Presidents and real estate industry groups on market conditions and burgeoning issues during the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. As the Federal Reserve’s only MAI, KC was also engaged in regulatory appraisal matters. His work was recognized with a Presidential Recognition Award by the AppraisalInstitutein 2007, and “Key Player” and “Meritorious Service” awards by the Federal Reserve and FFIEC in 2009 & 2010.

KC’s real estate industry and valuation insights are sought after by industry groups, such as the Appraisal Institute, AICPA,Counselors of Real Estate, CCIM Institute, and RMA. KC also teaches and lectures extensively to various State Banking and Financeagencies, the FDIC, OCC, FFIEC and some of the nation’s leading real estate centers, such as the University of Colorado, DePaulUniversity, University of Connecticut, Georgia Tech and New York University.

Originally from a developer family in Colorado, KC is a graduate of Emory University’s School of Business. He commenced his real estate career as an appraiser. After earning his MAI designation in 1989 as an appraiser for Cushman & Wakefield and the former Equitable Real Estate, he pursed loan workout, portfolio management and asset advisory experience with such companies as Deloitte & Touche, Wells Fargo and Prudential. In 1997, KC joined SouthTrust Bank as their Director of Underwriting to start a conduit. In 1999, SouthTrust promoted KC to Sr. VP and National Director of Real Estate Market Analysis in which he developed a proprietary system to risk rate and manage their real estate portfolio across 28 states in the, Southeast & Southwest US. Pertinent milestones in KC’s 25+ year career in commercial real estate include

MAI Designation – earned in 1989 . CRE Designation – earned 2009 . SouthTrust Bank 1996-2005 . Federal Reserve 2005-2010 . Federal Reserve “Key Player” and “Meritorious Service” awards 2009 . Brief Chairman Bernanke on the developing housing crisis June 2007 . Presidential Recognition Award from the Appraisal Institute 2007 . “Banks slow to Recognize CRE losses” article in WSJ October 7, 2009 . Colliers: Current EMD of R.E. Analytics. PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS & ACCREDITATIONS MAI: Member of Appraisal Institute CRE: Counselor of Real Estate

Esmael Adibi


Chair of Economic Analysis at Chapman University

Esmael Adibi, Jr.

Esmael Adibi, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research and Anderson Chair of Economic Analysis at Chapman University, received his doctorate degree in Economics from Claremont Graduate University.

His research interests include macroeconomics, financial markets, and regional economics. Dr. Adibi has co-authored two textbooks, Econometric Analysis – An Applications Approach, and The Practice of Econometrics with EViews

His articles have been published in newspapers including The Los Angeles Times, and the Orange County Register, as well as professional journals such as International Advances in Economic Research, the Journal of Private Enterprise, and the Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics.

Dr. Adibi is past president of the Association for University Business and Economic Research. He serves on the board of directors of SchoolsFirst Federal Credit Union, and is a member of California Controller’s Council of Economic Advisors.

Kathryn Lawler

External Affairs Manager

Atlanta Regional Commission

Kathryn Lawler

Kathryn Lawler is the external affairs manager for the Atlanta Regional Commission. She provides strategic planning and government affairs support to the different divisions of the agency including transportation, land use, environment, workforce, local government support and aging.

recently she has helped managed the Regional Roundtable and its work to prepare a list of transportation projects that will go before the voters in July 2012.

Prior to this role, she was a consultant working with local governments, foundations and community based coalitions, interested in effectively organizing to better prepare for the rapidly growing older adult population. From 2002 to 2006, Kathryn was Director of Aging Atlanta, a 50 organization partnership focused o preparing the metro region for the rapid growth in the older adult population. From 2001 to 2002 she was a fellow at Harvard University’s Joint Center on Housing Studies.

Ms. Lawler received a bachelor’s degree from the University of Notre Dame and a master’s degree from Harvard University.