August 2019 Conference

Dean
J.Mack Robinson College of Business

“Global Economy: Recession Fears Amidst Rising Trade Tensions”

While looser financial conditions and a moderate upturn in the manufacturing sector will be supportive for global growth, the escalation in US-China trade tensions along with waning fiscal stimulus increase downside risks to growth. Ongoing accommodative monetary policy by the Fed and other major central banks should remain supportive of growth, but any significant global acceleration looks a tall order. Beyond the short term, tight labor markets will constrain employment growth while wage growth firms only gradually. This will likely limit the upside to household spending. In this global context, a re-intensification of US-China trade tensions risks undermining sentiment and investment, and could push global GDP growth below the post-crisis low of 2.6% in 2016.

Chief US Economist
Oxford Economics USA

“Why China Leads the Global Economic Cycle”

The global economy has evolved from a group of regional economies interacting through trade to a single global economy dominated by multinational supply chains. In this environment, China, as the world’s low cost producer, has taken the role traditionally associated with the Southeastern US in a US model. Monetary policy shifts in China now matter more for future growth than the Federal Reserve, and their impact is most clearly seen in Chinese real estate markets as the leader of the global cycle. This model suggests strengthening growth for the world and US in 2019 and 2020 – unless disrupted by the trade war.

Chief Economist
McVEAN Trading & Investments, LLC

“Three Georgia’s, Not Two”

Mr. Norton will provide an in depth review of housing conditions and trends in Georgia. Affordability and opportunities across Georgia both in rural and urban markets. Mr. Norton has studied Georgia housing factors and the dynamics of growth as well as the constraints affecting housing development.

President
The Norton Agency

Forecast of the Nation, State and Region

Rajeev Dhawan delivers his keynote presentation on the economic outlook of the United States, Georgia and the Atlanta Metro Region. Join us as he shares his views on the state of the global economy as well as employment and consumption trends and their impact on industry in Georgia. He will discuss, in particular, the implications for residential and commercial real estate in the Atlanta Metro Region.

Zwerner Chair of Economic Forecasting
& Director
Economic Forecasting Center
J. Mack Robinson College of Business